This Buyer’s Market Is Different from the One in 2010

According to The Cromford Report, a leading, a real-time real estate market index for Metro Phoenix, as of July 3rd, 2025, these cities in Phoenix Metro are in a solid buyer’s market — Tempe, Goodyear, Peoria, Surprise, Queen Creek, Maricopa, Buckeye. Laveen, Litchfield Park, and Casa Grand; then these are in a balanced market — Chandler, Avondale, Glendale, Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale, Cave Creek and Gilbert; and a few are still in the seller’s market — Fountain Hills, Paradise Valley, El Mirage, Anthem, Tolleson, and Apache Junction.

There is no surprise based on where the population growth and increased new housing developments are happening in Phoenix. By the way, the market is not crashing and it won’t be for a foreseeable future. Here is why.

Active Listings v Sold Listings v New Listings

For a few days in July, the active listings in Arizona Regional MLS actually went below 25,000. I included the data for new listings coming on the market during the month to the chart above. You can see the number of active listings (homes for sale) are decreasing. How is it possible when there are more homes new to the market than homes sold? That’s because more sellers are taking their homes off the market, instead of selling at a lower price. Since May 1st, we have had 9595 cancelled, expired, and temporarily-off-market listings. This is not 2008, when many homes had mortgages more than what the houses were worth. Today’s sellers easily have 30-50% equity in their homes, with mortgage interest rates as low as 2.375%.

What does this mean for you, buyer or seller?

A few weeks ago, we received an offer in which buyers were asking the seller to pay 3% concession, 3% rate buy-down, and 3% buyer agent commission, after a 5% price reduction. The buyer agent told me it was the perfect home that checked all the boxes for the buyers. My seller responded by cancelling the listing, saying, “I am selling in this market.” He took a second mortgage for the cash he needed to move, and rented the house out. For certain neighborhoods and not-so-perfect homes, we might have a baby buyer’s market. For the houses you like, it’s more likely in a balanced market, which is still a pretty good deal for buyers.

Median Home Price (in 1000 US Dollars)

So dear buyers, you probably heard the real estate market is crashing everywhere and Phoenix has one of the highest price decrease. The median home price was at its highest – $475K in 2022; today it is $448K. And we don’t have the July data yet. For the home price to drop 6% in three years, it is more like a correction to the COVIC inflation, in my opinion, not a market crash.